Water scarcity and social conflict

Climate change and the increasing demand of water intensify global cycle, altering distribution in space time. This is expected to result wet areas getting wetter dry drier. As key life, scarcity likely provoke conflict. Using grid-cell data for Africa central America over years 2002 2017, we provide empirical evidence a link between likelihood local conflict mass declines. We measure anomalies based on changes Earth’s gravity field recorded by GRACE them social events SCAD data. To account potential endogeneity water, instrument interaction number drought months per year with yearly average temperature changes. Our results show that one standard deviation decrease follows from droughts an intensifying cycle more than triple Access groundwater surface help mitigate these effects substantially. Water factors contribute quicker depletion case shocks, but do not decline itself.